How Not to Fix a Problem

Throughout history, tragic occurrences have caused changes to the way we do things.  Some of the changes have been important and necessary and have resulted in improved safety.  However, many of the changes are to create a perception of concern or safety.  The latest tragedy, in Newtown, CT, has the National Rifle Association (NRA) and others, calling for a change that falls squarely in the second category.  Let's examine some of the other tragedies and the changes, before tackling this one.

May 6, 1937, the German airship Hindenburg, caught fire while landing at Lakehurst, NJ.  Thirty six people died and the accident signaled the end of airships (dirigibles, zeppelins, blimps) as air transportation.  Today, we see them providing aerial camera coverage for sporting events .  At the time of the Hindenburg disaster, airships used hydrogen for buoyancy.  All airships today use helium. Hydrogen is cheaper and lighter than helium, but helium is an inert gas and will not burn.  Definitely safer.

April 10, 1963, the USS Thresher, a nuclear submarine suffered flooding during sea trials and was lost with all 129 persons aboard.  May 22, 1968, the USS Scorpion, another nuclear submarine sank for unknown reasons, and all 99 on board were lost.  This resulted in 2 major changes, one good, one, mostly for show.  The good change was the creation of the DSRV (Deep Submergence Rescue Vehicle) program.  For the publicity, the US Navy showcased the DSRV in the 1978 movie "Grey Lady Down".  The mostly feel good change was a change to submarines themselves.  Until after these disasters, a submarine could only be entered or exited on the surface.  It's simple, if you open a hatch, the water comes in.  Not good in a submarine.  All current submarines are equipped with Logistic Escape Trunks (LET).  The entire LET can be removed for loading supplies, hence the "logistic" tag.  The LET is composed of 2 hatches, with a space between.  The inner hatch is opened, sailors enter, close the hatch, then increase the air pressure inside until the outer hatch can be opened.  They then float to the surface where they can be rescued.  Sounds good so far.

The downside is that the air pressure has to be raised very quickly.  Too long at increased air pressures would cause the bends due to the rapid decompression.  The air pressure must be increased so fast that it causes the eardrums to rupture.  Still that's better than dying in a steel tube on the bottom of the ocean.  Now other factors come into play.  If the submarine operates in northern waters, the water is cold.  Cold enough that death from hypothermia can occur in 30 minutes.  If the submarine operates in southern waters and the water is warm, there are sharks, attracted by the blood from the ruptured eardrums.  Add to that, the oceans are vast and the chances of someone getting to the scene to actually rescue you in time, are very small.  Still it did give us hope, as long as we didn't think about it too much.

On to transportation.  In 1938, the Interstate Commerce Commission, created the original hours of service regulations for people that operate commercial vehicles.  The rules have undergone a few changes, all intended to make the roads safer.  These regulations define the number of hours a driver can drive during a day, how long of a break must be taken and several other issues.  And the regulations are necessary.  Every day people die as the result of a truck driver falling asleep.

Unfortunately, the regulations are full of exceptions, greatly reducing their effectiveness.  This includes exceptions for oilfield operations, exceptions for drivers working for movie or television productions and exceptions for drivers making retail deliveries during the Christmas shopping season.  Here is an example of how, by following the rules, a person can drive 24 hours per day, without ever taking a break (until the schedule kills him).  Driving to or from home is considered "off-duty".  Drivers are required to take 10 consecutive hours either "off-duty" or in the sleeper berth.  If I live in Indianapolis and work in St. Louis, I can work 14 hours in St. Louis (but only 11 hours driving), get off work and drive home.  Upon reaching home, I can turn around, drive straight back to St. Louis and have taken my required 10 hour break.  I can now drive another 11 hours in the next 14 hour period.  All legal, but not a very good idea.

Now, on to current issues.  The NRA proposes training and arming security personnel and stationing them at schools to prevent another massacre.  On the surface, that seems like it could work.  After all, banks routinely use one armed guard to greatly reduce the risk of a robbery.  After taking a closer look, you'll either understand it's an ineffective, feel good fix, or you're so far out of touch with reality that nothing will reach you.

The only thing banks and schools have in common is they are both inside of buildings.  A bank typically has one way in, while a school has many entrances.  People that rob banks are sane criminals.  A guard inside is usually enough to convince them to find another bank.  Anyone that goes to a school (or a theater, or a mall, etc.) in order to kill a large number of people, is not sane and is unlikely to be stopped by one guard.  Although the guard may stop them, the presence of a guard will not deter them.

With the exception of very small, rural schools, schools are large, complex buildings.  Usually, only a few doors are left unlocked during school hours, in theory limiting access.  However, there are several ways to get into a school other than through the unlocked door.  One, or two, or even three security guards, can't possibly cover all access to even a mid-sized school, let alone one of the larger campuses.  To provide effective security, a significant number of armed guards is required.  It only takes one bullet to stop a would be killer, but the person with that bullet has to be between the killer and the potential victims.  For a small school this requires a minimum of 8 guards, and that is stretching things thin.  Ten would be much better.  Of course, 8 only works if the school is square, or nearly square.

Why so many guards?  First off, to be effective, guards must work in pairs.  One guard, and a moment of distraction, or someone taking them by surprise, could take them out.  Also, to keep anyone from getting inside, all 4 sides must be patrolled and monitored.  In addition, there really should be 2 guards inside the school as backup, relief for bathroom breaks etc.  This doesn't make things safe, but it's at least a step in the right direction.  Larger schools would require security forces numbering at least 20, and in some cases maybe as high as 50.

There are about 49 million children in 100,000 public schools in the United States.  This does not include day care centers, but does include kindergarten.  Providing minimal security (1 guard, making $30k/year) costs only $3 million, plus benefits, plus training, plus equipment.  Still not much money to spend.  Of course at $30k/year, you're probably not getting a lot of highly skilled applicants.  Better raise that wage to at least $45k/year.  Still a bargain.  Have you ever seen those "What to do in an emergency" cards on airplanes?  How many people have walked away from a plane crash praising those cards?  One guard at each school is the same thing.  The number needed to provide reasonable security to the public schools is about 1.5 million guards, with equipment costs at about $5000 each (weapons, communications, uniforms, vests, etc.).  By the time you add in training and benefits, the price tag is somewhere in the $10 billion/year range.  That is about 15% of the current federal budget for education.  Either the education budget needs a major increase (it does, but not for this), which is highly unlikely, or the quality of education (already poor) must take a very big hit.

What happens if we spend the money, and fill the schools with armed guards?  What happens if there is another shooting?   Do we add more guards?  And what if the mentally ill person seeking to kill dozens of people decides to look elsewhere?  Look 30 school buses of kids going to the zoo, or the museum, or to an amusement park.  At some point we don't have enough people to guard everything. It's time to examine, not only our gun laws, but also the way we deal with mental health issues.

The biggest problem with putting armed guards in all our schools:  It teaches the children, guns are the solution to all your problems.