Sunday, March 17, 2013

Climate Change Explained

Global warming or climate change, call it what you will, is not some new concept dreamed up as part of the liberal conspiracy.  Scientists have been discussing this possibility for at least 50 years, possibly longer.  In recent decades, a staggering amount and array of evidence has been compiled, showing that we are causing a change in the earth's climate.  From an archeological view, this is a boon.  Sites which have been buried under ice for thousands of years are now able to be explored.  However, from the survival of the species view things are not nearly as rosy.

I've gone over this before, but it bears repeating, our civilization is changing our climate.  To understand this there are a few terms I need to define; ideal and real.  Ideal is used to define a static, or unchanging system.  Any changes are introduced in a controlled manner so their effects can be measured.  Real is what we live with.  Things are constantly changing, in an uncontrolled manner.  This makes specific measurements difficult to obtain, instead we need to look at trends.  A few local days of unseasonably warm or cold weather is not useful when examining the entire climate system.

On an ideal earth, the population (of every animal) is constant, weather is consistent and predictable and there are no volcanoes, earthquakes or hurricanes to alter the weather patterns.  There is no new construction, no trees cut down (or new trees grown) and no pollution.  During daylight, the sun warms the earth, at night that warmth radiates out to space.  In this scenario, the sun is the heat source and space the heat sink.  No weather predictions are needed.  Every day's weather is exactly like the weather the year before.  Additionally, all warm blooded animals are heat sources and all plants are heat sinks.  Since we spend most of our time in temperatures lower than body temperature, each of us contributes a small amount to the heat balance.  Plants use sunlight to grow and survive, meaning they subtract from the heat balance.  Everyone still with me?  Now for the changes.

Humans are the only animals that alter their environment.  Most species seek or build some type of shelter, but we're the only ones to build a fire to heat it.  If it is too dark, we add light.  Too cold, we add heat.  Too hot, we remove heat, a process that generates more heat.  We cut down forests to build cities, cut down forests for more farmland and when we need more trees, we plant evergreens because they grow faster.  Not only do we add heat by our body heat, but every aspect of our lives adds more heat.  By greatly reducing the number of plants (especially trees) we are reducing their ability to remove heat.  Much of the waste from our lives ends up in the atmosphere where it works like a blanket.  Other than electric blankets, blankets do not generate heat, they block your body heat from escaping.  A blanket of pollution in the atmosphere does the same thing, allowing less heat to escape at night.  In our ideal, balanced climate we've made some changes.  We've added to the heat sources and subtracted from the heat sinks.  More people (source), less trees (sink), more industry (source), more pollution (sink).  Unless someone has a hidden heat sink somewhere, there is no alternative; in the real world our climate has to trend warmer.  Simple.

But, our climate is a very complex thing.  Due to the earth's axial tilt (23.4°) we have seasons.  One of the benefits of seasonal climate change is to help distribute the artificial climate alterations.  When you remove people from the equation, this works.  A volcano erupts, adding heat and ash to the air.  This combines to create a cycle of storms, that brings rain and snow in a wide swath, helping to distribute the extra heat and remove the ash from the atmosphere.  But if it gets too cold, we turn up the heat and if it gets too hot, we turn up the heat.  The result is much wider swings in the weather that we see.  This means drought and flooding.  It means blizzards and heat waves.  And it means hurricanes and tornadoes.  Bigger, more frequent and in places where we do not expect them.

So, when your crops fail because we have 2 days of 20° weather in July, it doesn't mean that global warming isn't a reality.  It means the climate is trying to get your attention.  Instead of fighting to destroy the only home we have, you may want to start thinking about ways to protect it.

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